{"id":1692420,"date":"2026-09-12T08:30:44","date_gmt":"2026-09-12T12:30:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/observer.com\/?p=1692420"},"modified":"2026-09-12T12:19:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-12T16:19:56","slug":"hollywoods-biggest-film-festival-bets-from-flops-to-500m-hits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/observer.com\/2026\/09\/hollywoods-biggest-film-festival-bets-from-flops-to-500m-hits\/","title":{"rendered":"Hollywood\u2019s Biggest Film Festival Bets, From Flops to $500M Hits"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The 2026 Toronto International Film Festival kicks off on Sept. 10, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario. J. Countess\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As I write from my kitchen table in the throes of coffee withdrawal, the following major film festivals have either just recently ended, are currently ongoing, or are on the direct horizon: Telluride Film Festival, Venice International Film Festival,<\/a> Toronto International Film Festival, New York Film Festival, and the BFI London Film Festival. (I miss being a critic).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Film festivals are useful resources for both talent and distributors. Filmmakers can use them to premiere their work and spark industry interest. Studio executives use them as a screening ground to evaluate new titles. If a premiere goes over like gangbusters with the crowd, prospective buyers may walk out of theaters already on the phone with sales agents. If a bidding war erupts, the talent will likely try to extract more concessions from interested parties, whether that be financial terms, theatrical distribution or other considerations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I bring this up because <\/span>nearly 75 percent<\/span><\/a> of all Best Picture nominees premiere at <\/span>film festivals. But just as quickly as the standing ovations erupt during awards season, we can\u2019t forget to evaluate the business side of things. How have some of the most expensive film festival acquisitions performed once they entered the merciless jungle of mainstream commercial metrics? Let\u2019s take a look.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nocturnal Animals: <\/i>acquired by Focus Features at the 2015<\/b> Cannes Film Festival for <\/b>$20 million<\/b><\/h3>\n

Legendary fashion designer Tom Ford has directed two feature films since making his directorial debut in 2009, with a <\/span>third on the way<\/span><\/a>. (Why don\u2019t you leave some talent for the rest of us?!)<\/span><\/p>\n

Ford self-financed <\/span>$22.5 millio<\/span><\/a>n for <\/span>Nocturnal Animals<\/span><\/i>, an adaptation of the 1993 Austin Wright book, <\/span>Tony and Susan<\/span><\/i>. Normally, that\u2019s a risky proposition. But given his resources and the fact that cinema is just a side hustle for him, one can see the logic (and be left envious).<\/span><\/p>\n

Universal\u2019s specialty division, Focus Features, scooped up <\/span>Nocturnal Animals <\/span><\/i>for $20 million <\/span>in a deal that additionally included an eight-figure marketing commitment. Despite good reviews\u2014it\u2019s an incredible yet darkly heavy film, not exactly overflowing with rewatchability\u2014and a best supporting actor Oscar nomination for Michael Shannon, it only earned $30.3 million worldwide. Generally, studios hope to earn 2.5 times a film\u2019s production budget at the box office.<\/span><\/p>\n

Palm Springs: <\/i>acquired by Neon\/Hulu at the 2020 <\/b>Sundance Film Festival for <\/b>$17,500,000.69<\/b> <\/b><\/h3>\n

In January 2020, Andy Samberg\u2019s delightful timeloop romcom set the record for the most expensive sale in Sundance Film Festival history (that cheeky 69 cents was deliberate). The plan was for indie banner Neon to distribute domestically, with Hulu gobbling up the eventual streaming rights. You know what happened next.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

With theaters shuttered, the film was forced to release exclusively on streaming that July. At the time, Hulu <\/span>claimed<\/span><\/a> that the title broke its opening-weekend film record for hours watched, yet did not reveal any actual numbers. This was still when the streaming industry was guarding its overly generous long leash from Wall Street by <\/span>staying silent<\/span><\/a> on how its releases actually performed. Yet this business thrives on bragging about big numbers. Vagueness is the enemy of success. (The movie earned $1.3 million at the international box office.)<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite its fun sci-fi hook and breezy tone, <\/span>Palm Springs<\/span><\/i> never made any of Nielsen\u2019s weekly streaming top 10 lists. (It\u2019s worth noting that Nielsen only released a Top 10 combined overall ranking beginning in August 2020, as opposed to the three separate Top 10 lists today.) Plus, Hulu only had around 35 million subscribers at the time. Given all that, the odds were stacked against <\/span>Palm Springs<\/span><\/i>. Just a bad beat.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s What\u2019s Inside<\/i>:<\/b> acquired by Netflix at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival for <\/b>$17 million<\/b><\/a><\/h3>\n

Greg Jardin’s feature directorial debut<\/span> premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2024, where Netflix acquired the $2.5 million horror comedy for a whopping $17 million.\u00a0<\/span>That\u2019s a healthy return on investment for the filmmaker, but was the juice worth the squeeze?<\/p>\n

Sadly, no. The film opened to an anemic 3.3 million global \u201cviews\u201d\u2014defined by Netflix as the total number of hours watched divided by the total runtime\u2014ranking just eighth in its release week and staying in the Top 10 for only two weeks. Since then, it\u2019s amassed just 27.9 million global views as of the first half of 2026. That\u2019s not enough viewership to justify the price tag.<\/p>\n

Obsession<\/i><\/b>: acquired by Focus Features at the 2025 Toronto International Film Festival for <\/b>$15 million<\/b><\/a><\/h3>\n

Hollywood was obsessed with <\/span>Obsession<\/span><\/i>. It was easily the story of the year. An original horror movie made on a budget of less than $1 million, acquired by Focus Features for $15 million, and a global gross of more than $500 million worldwide? This is what dreams (and wishes, but let\u2019s be careful there) are made of.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s Focus Features\u2019 highest-grossing film ever, and the highest with a budget under $1 million, surpassing Bruce Lee\u2019s 1973 <\/span>Enter the Dragon.<\/span><\/i> It\u2019s also\u00a0the top-grossing festival acquisition of all time<\/a>, surpassing Fahrenheit 9\/11.\u00a0<\/i>Not to mention that it’s\u00a0<\/span>the least expensive film to top the weekend box office in 17 years, since <\/span>Paranormal Activity <\/span><\/i>in 2009, and the highest-grossing original film released in the 2020s thus far.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anyone who says they\u2019ve found the next <\/span>Obsession <\/span><\/i>is lying. It\u2019s one of a kind.<\/span><\/p>\n

Blinded by the Light<\/i><\/b>: acquired by New Line Cinema at the 2019 Sundance Film Festival for <\/b>$15 million<\/b><\/a><\/h3>\n

In 2019, Warner Bros.\u2019 New Line Cinema won the auction at Sundance for Blinded by the Light, <\/i>in a bidding war that reportedly included Fox Searchlight, Lionsgate and other distributors. Yet despite a rapturous response at the film festival from plugged-in movie lovers, general audiences weren\u2019t as kind.<\/p>\n

The film earned just $19 million at the global box office. Oof. Sure, it didn\u2019t have any butts-in-seats stars (with all due respect to 2019 Hayley Atwell). But it did have Bruce Springsteen\u2019s discography boosting the soundtrack and a wonderful coming-of-age feel-good story. One would have thought those elements and a late summer release window would\u2019ve garnered a bit more attention. (I watched <\/span>Blinded by the Light <\/span><\/i>on a plane for the first time and wept throughout its moving ending. #NoShame.)<\/span><\/p>\n

What to watch at this year’s film festivals<\/h3>\n

This year, Martin McDonagh\u2019s Venice darling <\/span>Wild Horse Nine <\/span><\/i>is already generating rave reviews. Telluride and Toronto\u2019s hot title <\/span>Elsinore<\/span><\/i>, starring <\/span>Fleabag<\/span><\/i>\u2019s former \u201chot priest\u201d Andrew Scott, is apparently an acting showcase. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim\u2019s top-secret Elizabeth Holmes documentary <\/span>You Can See Everything <\/span><\/i>debuted at Telluride and instantly became a viral meme sensation.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Commercial success has no bearing on quality art. But it does, unfortunately, play a significant role in dictating what kind of art reaches the mainstream at a wide enough scale and who usually gets to continue telling stories at certain budget levels. It\u2019s context worth keeping in mind as this year\u2019s crop of buzzy titles hope to ride a wave of enthusiasm to golden glory.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Studios spend millions chasing festival breakouts. These acquisitions show how unpredictable a path from standing ovation to profit can be.<\/p>\n Read More<\/a>","protected":false},"author":125099115,"featured_media":1692461,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"_ef_editorial_meta_date_issue-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","_ef_editorial_meta__first-draft-date":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"post_tag":[423982741,423808862],"company":[657268,424019704,1702277,423795137,423837548,423806361,423814375,18111,424019702,424019703],"channel":[186,423868938,424015910],"location":[],"nyo_column":[423982261],"person":[448110,424019700,423882079,423885903,424019701,423812284,423913691,151200,423886392,423951122,423972689,424018745,423909537],"nyo_post_hidden":[],"coauthors":[423803243],"class_list":{"0":"post-1692420","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"tag-media-experts","8":"tag-toronto-international-film-festival","9":"observer_company-focus-features","10":"observer_company-fox-searchlight","11":"observer_company-hulu","12":"observer_company-lionsgate","13":"observer_company-neon","14":"observer_company-netflix","15":"observer_company-new-line-cinema","16":"observer_company-nielsen","17":"observer_company-universal","18":"observer_company-warner-bros","19":"channel-business","20":"channel-media","21":"channel-all-features","22":"nyo_column-expert-insights","23":"nyo_person-tom-ford","24":"nyo_person-austin-wright","25":"nyo_person-michael-shannon","26":"nyo_person-andy-samberg","27":"nyo_person-greg-jardin","28":"nyo_person-bruce-lee","29":"nyo_person-hayley-atwell","30":"nyo_person-bruce-springsteen","31":"nyo_person-martin-mcdonagh","32":"nyo_person-andrew-scott","33":"nyo_person-nathan-fielder","34":"nyo_person-lance-oppenheim","35":"nyo_person-elizabeth-holmes","36":"style-expert-insights"},"acf":{"homepage_position":"","homepage_title":"","homepage_excerpt":"","alternative_og_image":"","headline":{"seo_headline":""},"subheadline":{"optimized_seo_description":"","optimized_social_excerpt":""}},"apple_news_notices":[],"parsely":{"version":"1.1.0","canonical_url":"https:\/\/observer.com\/2026\/09\/hollywoods-biggest-film-festival-bets-from-flops-to-500m-hits\/","smart_links":{"inbound":0,"outbound":0},"traffic_boost_suggestions_count":0,"meta":[],"rendered":"","tracker_url":"https:\/\/cdn.parsely.com\/keys\/observer.com\/p.js"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/observer.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/09\/GettyImages-2294654206.jpg?quality=80","coauthors_byline":"By Brandon Katz","display_channel":"","thumbnail":"\"The